Xi Jinping consolidates power, oil proves its black gold status and London celebrates women-centric films
October 2022
Happy Halloween!🎃
Greetings from the British capital, where the political landscape is giving everyone a fright. In just a handful of months, Downing Street has welcomed a third prime minister and fourth chancellor (finance minister).
Working in a newsroom during this period has been exciting, educational and chaotic. I was reminded of my previous producing stints on election night in 2010 - voters delivered the UK’s first hung parliament in decades - and the week of the EU membership referendum in 2016.
Both events revealed fractures in the country. Predictions were made about upheaval and volatility, but no one’s crystal ball said it would be a non-stop circus!
While the dust settles here in London, the newsletter’s October edition focuses on Xi Jinping’s norm-breaking third term as president, oil’s return to geopolitical equations, and an inspiring array of women-centric movies out of Hollywood.
CEMENTING POWER
As major democracies grapple with existential dilemmas, China is determined to project an image of strength and stability. That includes maintaining the leadership status quo.
President Xi Jinping meticulously orchestrated an extension to his time in office, which was confirmed at the Communist Party’s National Congress. The seeds of Xi’s plan were sown in February 2018, when CCP policymakers obeyed his order to abolish the two-term limit.
How Xi secured his position as Supreme Leader 2.0 is remarkable - and was never 100% guaranteed. China watchers are still puzzled by his meteoric rise since other politicians appeared better suited for the top job. Plus, older generations of CCP chiefs had established norms to prevent the dominance of a Mao-like figure.
So what aspects of Xi’s personality or circumstances facilitated this scenario? The Economist pays heed to the saying “you have to know the past to understand the present”. Its excellent podcast series, called The Prince, delves into Xi’s life over eight episodes, offering insights on his political maneuvering.
Ultimately though, Xi wants to be an enigmatic head of state. His penchant for secrecy layered with Beijing’s impenetrable networks mean journalists are on alert for even the smallest of clues.
It’s why a video clip of former president Hu Jintao being escorted from the Great Hall of the People caused such a stir last week. According to Chinese media, 79-year old Hu was unwell and needed a break. But many are convinced Xi intended to humiliate his predecessor and send a warning.
OIL INFLAMES TENSIONS
The new oil is…oil? Even though economists have spent years pondering which commodity will replace petrol, the black gold remains in vogue.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reiterated how vital energy resources are, and how dependent we are on oil and gas. Surging inflation is being driven by - in large part - to spiralling energy prices, putting the squeeze on public finances, company margins and household budgets.
The situation is further inflaming geopolitical tensions as some governments try to gain the upper hand. Case in point: OPEC+ (the Saudi-led oil cartel and its allies). A recent decision by OPEC+ to slash production from November pushed Brent crude well above US$90 a barrel. The group claims it’s tightening supplies in line with global recession risks. Their reasoning: Why pump out millions of extra barrels when demand is forecast to decrease anyway?
Oil importers, however, disagree with this assessment. Their big fear is that steeper oil prices ahead of winter will exacerbate inflation and force central banks to keep hiking interest rates. Analysts say OPEC+’s output cut represents the “weaponisation of oil” and an opportunistic grab for revenue before the clean energy era begins.
Washington is especially furious with Saudi Arabia for ignoring pleas to maintain production targets. US officials accuse Riyadh of assisting fellow OPEC+ member Russia, who also benefits from higher petrol prices. Quietly, there are worries that accelerating living costs will damage the Democrats’ standing at the midterm elections.
The Saudis insist the group’s decision was formed on market moves, but the timing is intriguing. Despite President Biden’s initial promise to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state, the Ukraine war nudged him to visit the kingdom in July to bolster diplomacy - and discuss oil supplies. Now it seems the famous fist bump with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did little to reset the relationship.
On the corporate front, ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell all reported bumper quarterly profits.
TELLING WOMEN’S STORIES
When it comes to the film festival circuit, Cannes, Venice and Toronto are the key players for awards contenders and star-studded premieres. But London’s history as a cinematic hub and its commitment to diverse talent put the city’s annual October gala on the map.
I’ve covered the London Film Festival (LFF) on several occasions and really love the eclectic mix of features. What struck me most about LFF 2022 was the broad spectrum of female stories. The exposé at the heart of “She Said” was undoubtedly a catalyst for this shift.
Based on the NY Times investigation into Harvey Weinstein, “She Said” sees Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan embody the two journalists who tirelessly pursued the shocking sexual assault allegations, and helped give a voice to the victims.
Similar themes are explored in “Women Talking”, an unflinching drama about abuse and self-determination in an ultra-conservative Mennonite community. The ensemble cast, led by Rooney Mara and Claire Foy, fiercely debate whether they should forgive, fight or flee their male attackers.
In “Till”, the vicious cruelty of racism is examined from the perspective of Mamie Till-Mobley, a grieving mother who became a civil rights campaigner after her teenage son was abducted and killed in Mississippi in 1955. Danielle Deadwyler delicately portrays Mamie’s anguish and desire for justice.
Another touching period piece, albeit notably lighter in tone, is “Call Jane”. Elizabeth Banks shines as a 1960s housewife turned covert abortion activist following her doctor’s refusal to terminate a dangerous pregnancy. The plot is fictional but the Jane Collective did exist.
There are plenty more films to recommend, however, given the current economic climate, it’s fitting to end with “Emily the Criminal”. Aubrey Plaza is terrific as a broke graduate lured into retail fraud to pay off her debts. Millennial financial angst could be a mainstream genre, sadly.
Thanks for reading! Take care and stay curious, Sara x