Shifting priorities at the Munich Security Conference, AI's impressive video capabilities and record high cocoa prices
February 2024
Hello and welcome!đ
Happy Leap Day! Today is 29th February, which means 2024 is actually 366 days long, instead of the regular 365.
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A SOMBRE OUTLOOK
Heads of state, military chiefs, diplomats and intelligence experts gathered in Germany for the 60th Munich Security Conference. With conflicts and crises raging globally, the top-level decisionmakers were under pressure to resist pessimism and gloomy sentiments. Did they succeed?
According to analysts, discussions at the 2024 Munich meeting revealed a noticeable shift away from collective action to individual goals. Most tellingly, migration was ranked as the number one threat in the forumâs annual survey.
Here are some important takeaways from the conference:
Vladimir Putinâs regime: After two years of fighting, the Russia-Ukraine war appears to be at a stalemate. Volodymyr Zelensky, very much aware of support fatigue, said Moscowâs policies are âcatastrophic for other nations as wellâ. His comments gained traction when the sudden death of Alexei Navalny was announced. Nonetheless, persuading Kyivâs allies to provide further aid remains challenging.
Turmoil in Gaza: Escalating violence in the Middle East was firmly on the agenda. Representatives from the Palestinian Authority, Israel and Qatar, along with the EU and US, spoke at length about the worsening situation on the ground. In the end, though, negotiations went nowhere.
Americaâs evolving role: US Vice President Kamala Harris sought to reassure the audience of Washingtonâs commitment to cooperation. âIn these unsettled times, it is clear America cannot retreat,â she said in her speech. Harris also stressed the Biden administrationâs rejection of isolationist views.
Indiaâs friendly stance: Delegates from New Delhi reiterated their non-alignment, or all-alignment, objective in response to whether India can maintain partnerships with the US, Europe and Russia. âIf I am smart enough to have multiple options, you should be admiring me,â said the countryâs external affairs minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. He noted that India is non-West but not anti-West.
MAGIC ME THIS
On 15 February, Sam Altman instructed OpenAIâs new tool to create animations based on ideas put forward by users on X. The suggestions were certainly wacky - You may have seen a clip of different sea animals participating in a bicycle race on your social media feeds.
The point of this exercise was to showcase the capabilities of Sora, a text-to-video AI product that can magic up high-quality footage from simple written prompts. Sora isnât available to the public or corporate clients, but the technologyâs launch feels inevitable.
While similar generative AI tools do exist, Sora appears to handle complex scenes with flair. Of course, there are a plethora of questions about its sources and potential biases, copyright implications, impact on jobs, and manipulation by nefarious actors. For the moment, OpenAI has brushed aside those concerns, in true Altman fashion.
As someone who frequently edits videos in newsrooms, I find Sora both amazing and alarming. Will the next generation of broadcast journalists not need to learn how to ingest archive material, build sequences, sync audio or do colour correction?
Last yearâs strikes in Hollywood took aim at AIâs (allegedly) damaging effects on filmmaking and script writing. This piece by The Economist explores how the movie business could be totally transformed. [N.B. It was published two weeks before Soraâs debut.]
Actor, producer and director Tyler Perry is already bracing for disruption. Heâs halted studio expansion plans, worth US$800 million, in the wake of Soraâs convincing demo.
âI can sit in an office and do this with a computer, which is shocking to me,â he told The Hollywood Reporter.
COCOA PRICE CRUNCH
If you have a sweet tooth, you might want to set aside more cash for your favourite Cadbury bars.
The price of cocoa beans - the key ingredient in chocolate, cocoa powder and cocoa butter - climbed to a record high level in February. There are various reasons for this surge, including climate patterns, crop disease and production methods.
Despite the global popularity of chocolate, the overwhelming majority of the worldâs cocoa beans come from West Africa. Four countries - Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria - account for nearly 75% of supplies. Unfortunately the region has experienced extreme weather in the last two years, with heavy rainfall followed by dry spells. Those conditions were tough on the plants and encouraged fungus as well as pests.
Adding to the issue of the poor harvests is the fact that cocoa is grown by small-scale farmers, not plantations. A brilliant column by Bloomberg Opinionâs Javier Blas delves into the nuances of the market.
As Blas explains, hundreds of thousands of farmers across West Africa rely on brokers to trade their beans. Historically low prices didnât attract investors or agro-commodity firms to the sector since the commercial benefits were limited. However, current high prices arenât trickling down to the farmers either.
In Ivory Coast and Ghana, for instance, government officials set prices on future contracts to guarantee a certain income. This means deliveries in the 2023-24 period are fetching significantly less than the wholesale price, yet the middle men are passing on the increases to their customers. As a result, the cocoa crunch is leaving a bitter taste.
Thanks for reading! Take care and stay curious, Sara x