On the agenda for 2024: Consequential elections, navigating multipolarity and much more
December 2023
Goodbye 2023! Happy New Year🎉
Hope you have a wonderful time ringing in the new year. Catch you on the other side!
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2024: PREPARING FOR A PIVOTAL YEAR
As policymakers and analysts peer into their crystal balls to predict the priorities and flashpoints for 2024, certain developments and threats are coming into focus. Here are some of the main factors to consider:
Election mania: Get ready for a calendar packed with national elections - literally dozens of them. With voters in the UK, Indonesia, Taiwan, India, Mexico and South Africa, among others, expected to head to the polls in the coming months, this is a consequential moment for liberal democracy. Of course, the biggest showdown will happen in the US in November, when President Joe Biden faces his Republican opponent, who could turn out to be former Commander-in-Chief Donald Trump.
More states jockey for influence: The world is increasingly fractured and complex. Several nations are realigning their interests, often dismissing established rules and institutions. These shifting relationships will impact “friendshoring” and supply chains. Meanwhile, the rise of middle powers, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, will further complicate the lives of Western diplomats.
Absence of peace: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached a stalemate, which means both sides will ramp up fighting as soon as funding and troop numbers are in better shape. In the Middle East, the outcome of Israel and Gaza’s “hot” war remains uncertain. Then there are catastrophes in Sudan, DR Congo and Myanmar, as well as painful battle scars in places like Libya, Yemen and Nagorno-Karabakh.
China’s economic reckoning: The engine of global growth is undoubtedly slowing. Beijing’s post-Covid plans have disappointed, so the pressure is on President Xi Jinping and the Politburo to stimulate GDP. They need to fix a property market slump, stubborn youth unemployment, declining foreign investment and weaker consumer spending.
Climate change disruption: Extreme weather events will make the operational risks associated with burning fossil fuels even harder to ignore. Despite the hype around COP28, most governments and organisations are far behind energy transition targets. Distinguishing between genuine net zero transformation and “greenwashing” will also prove difficult.
READER’S CORNER
As many of you know, I’m a huge fan of longform journalism and creative storytelling. These articles are on my list of favourites for 2023:
“Sam Altman Is The Oppenheimer Of Our Age” (New York Magazine) - An enlightening - and unsettling - profile of the OpenAI CEO, published before his dramatic ouster from the company.
“How Sam Bankman-Fried’s Elite Parents Enabled His Crypto Empire” (Businessweek) - My Bloomberg colleague and I were shocked to discover how much of a family affair the FTX scandal was.
“The Medicis Of The Middle East? How The United Arab Emirates Is Plotting Its Rise” (Foreign Affairs) - The UAE has quietly juggled foreign and domestic forces for decades, but its leaders are now aiming for a serious role on the world stage.
“China Wants To Choose The Next Dalai Lama. He Has Other Plans” (The Economist’s 1843 Magazine) - The future of Tibetan Buddhism is precarious.
“My Delirious Trip to the Heart of Swiftiedom” (New York Times) - Taylor Swift inspired reams of news reports this year. However, nothing can beat Taffy Brodesser-Akner’s hilarious, surreal and heartwarming essay about her experience at the Eras Tour.
Thanks for reading! Take care and stay curious, Sara x